The Federal Customs Service reported that Russia’s foreign trade surplus rose 13.2% year-on-year to $116.8 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Exports climbed by $41.9 billion to reach $346.5 billion, while imports increased by $28.3 billion to hit $229.7 billion. This expansion pushed total trade turnover up 13.9% to $576.2 billion. The growth rates for both sides were nearly identical at 13.8% and 14.1%, yet the structural imbalance added $13.6 billion to the net gain. TASS reported these figures on November 10, confirming a strong performance despite external pressures.
Oil prices drive the ledger
Higher oil prices did much of the work, pushing Urals crude to $92.08 per barrel for tax purposes in September from $67.11 in August. Mineral products, mostly oil, gas, and coal, earned $194.8 billion in the nine months, a 14.3% increase over the previous year. However, the federal budget’s oil and gas revenue for January through October was still 14.1% lower than in 2025. Weaker output, a strong ruble, and payouts to refiners under the "fuel damper" ate the windfall before it reached the Treasury. Metals grew fastest among export groups, up 21.8% to $63.5 billion, while farm exports rose 15.6% to $31.8 billion. Imports of machinery and equipment, the largest category, rose 16.1% to $112.4 billion. Chemical imports increased 11.3% to $44.8 billion, and food imports grew 4.3% to $32.6 billion.
Asian dominance reshapes flows
Asia now takes 80% of Russia’s exports, with shipments there rising to $277.5 billion. Imports from the region also jumped 17.6% to $158.1 billion. In contrast, exports to European countries edged up only 2.3% to $44.5 billion, while imports from them grew 8.9% to $56.2 billion. This leaves Russia with a deficit on its European trade. Exports to Africa slipped 0.7% to $15.8 billion, and those to the Americas fell 7.8% to $8.6 billion. The momentum is fading as the Urals discount to Brent widened in October due to higher freight and insurance costs. Indian refiners have cut purchases as Middle Eastern supplies recover. The EU bans Russian LNG under long-term contracts from January 1, 2027. The International Energy Agency expects this ban, combined with pipeline phase-outs, to take 30 bcm off Russian gas sales to the bloc next year.
