Vladimir Putin has recovered only three of the thirteen approval points he lost in the nine months leading to June, according to data from the independent Levada Centre. The state-run VTsIOM poll, conducted between October 26 and November 1 among 1,600 adults, reports a 71.6% approval rating for the president’s work and 77.5% trust, which is the highest trust reading since March 1. Levada’s own survey of 1,601 people, taken from October 21 to 30, shows 77% approving and 19% disapproving. These figures mark a partial rebound from a slide that erased most of the wartime rally. Levada’s monthly series rose from 71% in February 2022 to a peak of 88% in February 2025, then fell from 87% in September 2025 to 74% in June and July 2026. This drop represents the lowest level since the invasion began. VTsIOM’s approval bottomed at 65.1% on July 12, within one point of the 64.3% recorded on February 20, 2022, four days before the war started. I see this recovery as fragile because it relies heavily on the State Duma election campaign rather than genuine public satisfaction. The share of Levada respondents saying the country is going in the right direction reached 60% in October, up from 54% in July, but this optimism does not translate into broad support for the government. Disapproval stands at 19% overall, yet it reaches 27% among under-25s and 41% among people who get news from YouTube channels. Conversely, approval hits 84% among television viewers and 85% among users of the MAX messenger. The gap between the president and his cabinet remains wide, with VTsIOM showing 77.5% trust in Putin versus 45.4% approval of the government and 46.2% for Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
The decline over the past year resembles the pension slump of 2018 more than any specific war shock. That earlier reform cost Putin 12 points in two months, dropping from 79% in May to 67% in July, and he never exceeded 71% again until the invasion added 12 points in a single month. In contrast, the current fall is a slow bleed with no single trigger. Russians named Ukrainian drone raids (24% of mentions) and petrol shortages and price rises (22%) as the main events of June, the month Levada’s reading dropped five points. Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s economy, which Putin has said opened a "Pandora’s box," have spread the fuel crisis into freight and farming sectors. A political consultant working with the Kremlin told Meduza in April that Telegram blocking and mobile internet cuts were among the reasons for falling ratings, while noting prices and war fatigue were also at work. The recovery has outlasted the September 18-20 elections, although fuel rationing returned to more regions in September. No party leader comes close to the president’s numbers. Gennady Zyuganov of the Communists is on 37.1%, Sergei Mironov of A Just Russia on 28.6%, Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party on 24%, and Alexei Nechayev of New People on 13.3%. United Russia has slipped to 31.9% from 33.4% just three weeks earlier. The two polling series agree on direction but differ on level, with independent Levada consistently showing Putin more popular than state-run VTsIOM by an average of eight points since March 2022. This gap hit 13 points in April 2026 and was five points in October. Much of the difference sits with people who give no verdict rather than critics, as VTsIOM has about a third of respondents offering no view of the government. Levada interviews people face to face at home, whereas VTsIOM moved to a combined sample in May 2026, making its readings before and since not strictly comparable. The swings over time are the firmer evidence, and both series now confirm that Putin’s war premium has shrunk significantly.
