The candidates and the vote
Bulgaria heads to presidential elections this Sunday, October 25. I expect the Ukraine-skeptic acting President Iliana Iotova to win. Iotova previously served as vice president under Prime Minister Rumen Radev, and her victory would increase Radev’s grip on power because his Progressive Bulgaria party supports her. Iotova will face off against her main opponent, Andrey Gyurov, who is a reform-minded banker and the 2026 interim Prime Minister. Georgi Kandev, the former chief secretary general to the Interior Ministry, is Gyurov’s running mate. Iotova’s designated vice president is Kiril Valchev, the director of the country’s state newswire Bulgarian Telegraph Agency. The election on October 25, occurring the same day as snap elections in neighboring Serbia, presents a contest between two candidates who run as independents but receive support from various political parties.
Security issues in the Black Sea
Drone attacks hit merchant shipping in Bulgaria’s Black Sea zone on October 6 and October 13. These maritime incidents follow attacks that occurred in Romania’s territorial waters this month. I find the government’s reluctance to name Russia as the likely attacker a failure. The administration also faced criticism for a poor response and the lack of a defense strategy, as well as for the widespread reluctance among ministers to name Russia as the likely attacker. This security situation forces candidates to address the tension between Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s calls for restraint towards Russia and the extra NATO protection his own government is requesting in the Black Sea. The candidates offer different answers to how Bulgaria should reconcile its relationship with Russia with its need for NATO protection. I find the current administration’s inability to provide a cohesive defense strategy particularly concerning. The tension between Radev’s calls for restraint and the NATO requests is a major issue for voters.
