Reversing the ban
I find the Sejm’s decision to pass the bill allowing abortion in cases of severe foetal abnormality a clear step toward dismantling the 2020 ban. This Tuesday vote saw 233 MPs vote in favour while 203 stood opposed. The legislation would reverse the 2020 Constitutional Tribunal ruling which found that allowing abortions in cases of severe foetal abnormality contravened various constitutional principles, including the right to life, which previously resulted in a near-total ban on the practice. Before this, abortions were only legal if a pregnancy resulted from rape or incest or if the pregnancy threatened the mother’s life or health. This victory for Tusk’s coalition, including the small Together party, shows a shift in momentum even though the coalition has struggled to act since it took power from the national-conservative Law and Justice government in December 2023. However, the coalition’s internal friction remains evident because five MPs from the Polish People’s Party joined the right-wing opposition to vote against the measure.
Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition and The Left have previously expressed support for an even greater liberalisation of the law, which would allow abortion on demand up to the 12th week of pregnancy. All of their MPs voted for the compromise option on the table on Tuesday. Currently, Poland has one of the strictest abortion laws in Europe, as only Malta has a more restrictive legal framework. The 2020 ruling, which went into force in January 2021, occurred when the Constitutional Tribunal was stacked with PiS-appointed judges, including three who were illegitimately appointed. This ruling prompted the largest protests Poland has witnessed since the communist era.
Narrow wins and presidential vetoes
I see the Sejm’s narrow approval of the decriminalization bill as a sign that the ruling coalition still struggles to maintain unity. This second bill would decriminalize the act of helping a woman obtain an unlawful abortion, which is an offence that currently carries a prison sentence of up to three years. On Tuesday, 217 MPs voted in favour and 213 against. This result differs from the 2024 attempt to pass such a bill, which failed after most PSL MPs joined the opposition to block it. All MPs from the Civic Coalition and The Left voted for the bill, as did the members of Razem. While 14 PSL MPs, including deputy prime minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, voted against it, almost all from the centrist Poland 2050 voted in favour. The bill passed only because 27 MPs failed to attend the vote, including 10 from PiS, such as party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. If those members had participated, the bill would likely have been rejected.
| Bill Category | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Severe foetal abnormality | 233 | 203 |
| Decriminalization of assistance | 217 | 213 |
The bills now move to the Senate, where Tusk’s coalition holds an even larger majority than in the Sejm. However, President Karol Nawrocki will likely veto the measures because he is aligned with the right-wing opposition. His chief of staff, Zbigniew Bogucki, said on Tuesday that Nawrocki "supports the protection of life from conception to natural death". Bogucki noted that the president would wait to see what the legislation looks like. I find the president’s opposition likely, as Nawrocki has vetoed a record number of government bills. Bogucki suggested that Tusk wants to rehash ideological issues to cover up his incompetence. The situation is more complex because the government does not recognize any rulings from the Constitutional Tribunal due to the presence of judges appointed under PiS. Nawrocki and chief justice Bogdan Swieczkowski have refused to accept five new TK judges appointed by the Sejm this year.
