The early parliamentary elections in Serbia determine whether Aleksandar Vucic moves into the prime minister’s office. These elections also decide what comes next for Serbian democracy and whether the country can determine its economic security and development pathways. For many years, the Serbian economic model relied on these three components:
| Economic Component | Type |
|---|---|
| Chinese capital | Investment |
| Russian energy | Resources |
| The European market | Trade |
This economic model helped the country become an unavoidable factor in the Western Balkans. I find that the sharpening geopolitical confrontation makes the act of balancing between these different partners increasingly difficult. While Belgrade seeks to maintain good relations with Washington, the decisions made by Washington regarding sanctions against the oil company NIS now directly affect the Serbian economy.
Stability and geopolitical pressure
Prolonged protests against the rule of Aleksandar Vucic shake the domestic political stability of the nation. The authorities long presented this domestic political stability as a competitive advantage for attracting investment. I observe that the combination of these protests and the sharpening geopolitical confrontation makes the Serbian balancing act run out of time. The early parliamentary elections will decide if Aleksandar Vucic moves into the prime minister’s office and what comes next for Serbian democracy. These elections also determine the economic security and development pathways for the country. I see that the current instability threatens the economic model that relies on Chinese capital, Russian energy, and the European market to keep the country an unavoidable factor in the Western Balkans. The decision on whether Aleksandar Vucic moves into the prime minister’s office will determine the next steps for Serbian democracy.
