Giorgia Meloni wrote to European Council President Antonio Costa on November 5, accusing the bloc of projecting an image that is "all over the place." She requested that the issue of a unified voice go on the agenda for the informal leaders’ meeting in Dublin on November 13. The Italian prime minister argued that this disunity serves those who want the war to continue. This criticism lands just days before US, Russian, and Ukrainian officials meet in Abu Dhabi from November 10 to 11. They will discuss security arrangements, which form the make or break of any potential agreement. Europe holds much of what such a deal needs, including sanctions and frozen Russian assets, but it lacks an agreed negotiator.
The Sticking Point on Guarantees
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas maintains the hardest position among all officials. She stated in Warsaw on November 6 that "Putin does not have a veto over European security." Her stance requires Russia to halt the war before discussing the Kremlin’s concerns about the continent’s security architecture. Putin has repeatedly said that freezing the fight before settling the "root causes" of the conflict is a non-starter. For Moscow, a real and "ironclad" security deal is the price of stopping. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called indivisible security "a cornerstone of our position" on November 3. He noted that talks would cover mutual guarantees, though he also accused Europe of "persistent indecisiveness" because its leaders have not decided who is authorized to speak on their behalf.
Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff are exploring permanent security consultations and reliable crisis communications. Their goal is to create a more stable environment while retaining each country’s authority over its own alliances. Zelenskiy opened the door to discussing Russia’s demands, but only once the fighting has ended. He told AP on November 5 that protection must be clear on paper, asking who would do what if Russia attacks again. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha emphasized that there can be no decisions on security without Ukraine and Europe. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected claims that Americans would finalize a document only after Kyiv leaves Donbas. He stated plainly that "that war is about Donbas" in an October interview.
Selective Engagement and Escalation
Moscow has shifted from a flat refusal to a selective opening regarding European involvement. Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store held a 90-minute call with Putin on October 27. This was the first serious European attempt to talk to him since the 2022 invasion. Peskov said on October 30 that European involvement would be required at some stage, though Abu Dhabi would remain a three-way format. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen criticized the Nordic initiative, calling herself "very sceptical." Italy was left out of previous Miami and Brussels meetings, and Meloni says she is not asking for a seat for her country. The format is settling around the E3 with the EU, Nato, and Ukraine, but no special envoy is agreed upon.
Expectations for the first rung of negotiations are low. Kyrylo Budanov told CBS News that these negotiations are not final. Rustem Umerov will lead Ukraine’s delegation, which includes Budanov, David Arakhamia, Dmytro Lytvyn, and Serhii Kyslytsia. Trump spoke of a "big agreement" involving more than Ukraine after meeting Kirill Dmitriev on November 5. However, Peskov said there are no details. Putin is using the stick while talks are prepared. Zelenskiy reported intelligence on November 6 indicating a new attack against energy infrastructure and bridges across the Dnipro River. A ballistic missile attack damaged Kyiv’s Northern Bridge overnight on November 7. The death toll from the bombing of an aid centre at Komyshuvakha reached 55. Kallas warned that Moscow attempts to freeze Ukraine into surrender, but they will not let it happen.
