The Economic Impact of a Potential Exit
The presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan signed a 70 page report titled ‘On the Possible Consequences of Suspending, with Respect to the Republic of Armenia, the Application of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of 29 May 2014′. This document argues that Armenia’s potential exit to join the EU would cause massive economic losses for Yerevan while having almost no consequence for the other members. I find the economic disparity between Armenia and its neighbors in this report quite stark. In 2025, Armenia’s trade with the EAEU reached just under $8 billion, including $3.2 billion in exports and $4.8 billion in imports. This accounted for 37.8% of Armenia’s total trade. Armenia’s trade with the EAEU made up 0.91% of Russia’s turnover, 0.28% of Belarus’, 0.05% of Kazakhstan’s, and 0.02% of Kyrgyzstan’s. The report predicts that 97 to 99% of the resulting drop in trade and services would fall on Russia, even though Russia’s export and import declines would stay below 0.55% and 0.65% respectively.
Armenia would face immediate changes to its economic privileges if the EAEU suspends its membership. Armenian goods would be treated like those from any third country, requiring customs declarations, controls, and duties. Product certificates would no longer be recognized, and suppliers would need to be re-approved. Armenian workers would lose free access to the labor market, as well as medical and social coverage, while companies would lose equal treatment in public procurement and face rising rail tariffs. The most significant effects could hit energy through changes to gas arrangements and the loss of access to free trade agreements.
| Trade Metric (2025) | Armenia (EAEU Trade) | Russia (Total Trade) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Trade Value | Under $8 billion | N/A |
| Export Value | $3.2 billion | 0.55% decline |
| Import Value | $4.8 billion | 0.65% decline |
| % of Total Trade | 37.8% | 0.91% impact |
Legal Paths and Labor Shifts
The legal basis for such a move remains murky because the EAEU Treaty contains no procedure for suspending or expelling a member. In June, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin said experts would examine both economic and legal aspects of the issue. The report points to two specific legal possibilities to bypass the treaty’s silence. One option involves Article 3, which requires members to avoid actions that endanger the Union’s goals. Another option uses the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows parties to jointly suspend a treaty if a state materially breaches it. This suspension could last until Armenia holds a referendum on EAEU membership versus EU accession. I think these legal interpretations provide a thin veil for political pressure.
Labor migration reveals another massive imbalance. The report estimates that 126,900 Armenians work in other EAEU states, and since 98.2% of these individuals work in Russia, the impact on other member labor markets remains minimal because only 17,400 EAEU workers are employed in Armenia. I find the vulnerability of the Armenian workforce to these shifts very high. The EAEU and EU have conflicting product requirements regarding antibiotics, ractopamine, nitrates, certain pesticides, and GMOs. Pashinyan said in August that passing a law to launch the EU accession process does not mean Armenia is in a position to become a member of the EU. This 2025 law, which Moscow and Minsk call incompatible with EAEU membership, followed the decision to start EU accession. The EU Council adopted temporary trade liberalization measures for 80% of Armenian exports in September while Russia maintains bans on various Armenian imports.
