Europe’s underground storage hit 72% on November 9, a deficit of 17.26 percentage points below the five-year average for that date and down from 82.55% a year earlier. Sites peaked at only 74.96% this autumn, short even of the 80% target the European Commission had been ready to accept, and 4.15bn cubic metres has been withdrawn in the 13 days since, 2.1 times the five-year average for the period. December TTF futures traded at $1,002.59 per 1,000 cubic metres on November 11, back above $1,000 for the first time since November 5, according to ICE data cited by TASS. Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller has said prices could reach $2,500 in a cold winter, while Putin suggested $1,500. Higher energy prices have cost the EU €127bn since the start of the year, up from €106bn in mid-October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated. Equinor chief executive Anders Opedal noted that this year’s low reserves leave Europe more exposed this winter than in earlier years.
Buyers exploit Gazprom’s dependence
The EU ban is set to cut Russian gas sales to the bloc by 30bn cubic metres in 2027, leaving Gazprom more dependent on the TurkStream route and its customers: Turkey, Serbia, and, until the deadline, Hungary. Each buyer uses that dependence to push on price or contract length. Hungary’s Prime Minister Peter Magyar said his government does not consider Russian gas cheap, with transit making up a large part of its cost, and that Budapest keeps shopping for alternatives to get the best price, which he said strengthens its hand in negotiations, TASS reported on November 11. In May he had told Poland’s Rzeczpospolita that he expected the whole EU to go back to cheaper Russian gas once the war in Ukraine ends. Economy and Energy Minister Istvan Kapitany said on September 18 that the government would be ready to stop using Russian gas by October 2027, the EU deadline. The deals signed so far cover about 12% of demand, and Foreign Minister Anita Orban has pinned hopes on more US LNG after signing a non-binding agreement with Washington on October 29. Magyar took the same message to Berlin on November 10, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz offered access to Germany’s LNG infrastructure. His Tisza party’s election platform promised to end energy dependence on Russia by 2035, eight years later than Brussels now demands.
Serbia seeks long-term security
Serbia, outside the EU and not bound by its ban, wants the opposite: a long contract. Talks on future supplies and a long-term deal are continuing and Moscow remains committed to all its earlier agreements, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting with Aleksandar Vulin, chairman of the supervisory board of state gas company Srbijagas, TASS reported. Vulin said in Moscow last week that he would ask every senior Russian official he met to back an extension of the supply deal. Belgrade has lived on short extensions since Moscow refused Aleksandar Vucic a three-year contract last year, and the Student List movement that won the October 25 election has also called for a multi-year deal. Turkey’s purchases are rising even as Ankara complains. Gazprom’s operational data show deliveries to Turkey in the first five days of November were almost four times those of the same period in October or September, and October’s total was 78% above September’s. Yet Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on November 5 that Russian gas is too expensive, eight weeks before two Gazprom contracts covering 22bn cubic metres a year expire.
