The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates that Russia’s blockade of seaports will cost the country $5.2 billion in export earnings during the second half of 2026. This loss breaks down into $4.6 billion from farm goods and $0.6 billion from iron ore, while the idling of major steelworks removes a further $1 billion from exports and adds $0.4 billion to metal imports. The total hit to the trade balance reaches $6.6 billion, which equals about a third of the $19.2 billion in goods Ukraine sold abroad during the same months of 2025. Goods exports dropped to $8.0 billion in the third quarter of 2026 from $10.2 billion in the second quarter, and August’s $2.36 billion total was the lowest monthly figure since July 2023. Ferrous metal exports fell 55% by value in the third quarter, a decline the central bank expects to reach 81% in the fourth quarter.
Other routes fall short
Farm exports collapsed to 1.8 million tonnes in August, down from a monthly average of 5.2 million tonnes between 2023 and 2025. Shipping recovered only to 2.7 million tonnes in September as cargo diverted to alternative paths, but the NBU sees capacity on those routes reaching at most 3 million tonnes per month. That volume is insufficient to ship this year’s grain before the marketing year ends, especially since strikes and low water levels on the Danube limit throughput. Grain trader Kernel puts yearly capacity on these routes at about 20 million tonnes against normal production needs of 50 million tonnes. The current grain and oilseed crop is the largest of the full-scale war at an expected 84.8 million tonnes, yet there is little way to sell it. Agriculture’s share of foreign currency supply fell from almost 50% to about 40% in the third quarter, forcing the NBU to extend export settlement deadlines on some farm goods to 150 days.
A bigger bill in 2027
The NBU baseline assumes the blockade lasts through the first half of 2027, with farm goods shipped later, some spoiled by long storage, and large mills idle all year. The bank forecasts $7.2 billion in lost exports next year, comprising roughly $4 billion in farm goods, $2.6 billion in steel, and $0.6 billion in ore, plus $1.5 billion in extra metal imports. Attacks take 2.2 percentage points off 2027 GDP growth, more than the 1.9 points removed this year. The crop shrinks to about 79 million tonnes as cash-short farmers swap wheat and corn for less bulky oilseeds and use less fertilizer. Farmers’ reserves have fallen from about $250 per hectare at the start of the year to $98 on October 1, according to Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi. A longer blockade would pile up stocks, cut what farmers receive at home, and force the central bank to sell more dollars, potentially keeping policy tighter than planned. US-brokered talks with Russia are due to start in Abu Dhabi on November 10.
