Coale’s independent push on potash
John Coale is pushing to reopen Lithuanian ports to Belarusian potash exports, an initiative that U.S. and European officials say is not a broader policy shift in Washington. Lithuania has no plans to change its position on allowing Belarusian potash exports through its territory, as it remains a supporter of Ukraine. A European official told the Kyiv Independent that the position of the EU regarding these exports has not changed. The State Department has not raised this specific issue with Lithuania. U.S. officials described the proposal as Coale "freelancing" because neither the State Department nor the wider administration pursues the policy. One American official described U.S. policy as "schizophrenic" because career diplomats at the State Department often do not know about initiatives from Coale and special envoy Steve Witkoff.
The administration seeks alternatives to Canadian imports, which previously accounted for around 80% of U.S. potash supplies, because White House officials link the lifting of sanctions to Belarus’s recent constructive engagement and prisoner releases. This move to find new suppliers follows the decision to lift sanctions on Belarusian producers in December 2025.
Belarus potash context
The U.S. lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash producers in December 2025. This move followed a meeting between Coale and Alexander Lukashenko on September 11, 2025, in Vilnius, which resulted in the release of 52 political prisoners. These sanctions were originally imposed by the U.S., U.K., EU, and Canada after the Lukashenko regime violently cracked down on pro-democracy protesters following an election widely viewed as having been stolen in 2020.
| Potash Supply and Sanctions | Data |
|---|---|
| Canadian share of U.S. potash | 80% |
| Released political prisoners | 52 |
| EU sanction renewal period | 12 months |
While the U.S. lifted its sanctions, EU sanctions still prohibit member states from trading in Belarusian goods because the bloc must renew measures every 12 months through unanimous agreement. Lithuania could theoretically block a renewal, but the government has no plans to change its position. Belarus remains a close Russian ally and was once a leading supplier of potash, a component used in fertilizer production. A Trump administration official said the U.S. looks for commercial opportunities that serve American economic interests and discusses commercial prospects with allies and partners regularly. The official stated the decision to lift sanctions reflected Belarus’s recent constructive engagement with the United States and continued release of political prisoners.
