Montenegro leads the way
The European Commission’s annual Enlargement Package, covering September 2025 to September 2026, places Montenegro at the front of the accession line. I find the progress in Montenegro starkly different from its neighbors because the country has already closed 21 negotiating chapters and has only 14 remaining. Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said Montenegro has a clear path to signing its accession treaty by next summer. Marta Kos, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, said that for the first time since the EU closed negotiations with Croatia in 2011, the Commission is in a position to close negotiations with another candidate country. Albania also received an accession roadmap, which Prime Minister Edi Rama called another step forward toward the goal of uniting with Europe.
Balkan stagnation and Turkish decline
I find the lack of movement in the rest of the Balkans frustrating, as Serbia shows high alignment with EU laws but has seen backsliding in areas like freedom of expression, public administration, and academic freedom. Bosnia and Herzegovina made no progress in the judiciary, corruption, media freedom, or the economy. The Commission reported growing political instability, weak institutions, state capture, and a regressed visa policy in Bosnia. The Commission also urged Bosnia to align its visa policy with the EU and warned that visa-free arrangements with seven countries could increase irregular migration risks. North Macedonia remains stalled because it has not fulfilled the constitutional changes required to include Bulgarians among its constitutive peoples. The Commission noted that Kosovo risks losing more than 40 million euros in EU growth plan funds because it missed the June 2026 implementation deadline. Although Kosovo has recently intensified carrying out its reform agenda, an almost two-year institutional blockade halted EU-related reforms. I also see a bleak outlook for Turkey, where democratic backsliding continues in areas of political pluralism, the integrity of the electoral process, the rule of law, and local governance. The 2026 Turkey Report notes the detention of opposition politicians like Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the annulment of the Republican People’s Party’s 2023 congress, government pressure on independent media, and the judicial pressure on opposition parties. Turkey started EU accession negotiations in 2005, but its membership bid remains frozen.
