Karol Nawrocki commands 53% public trust against Donald Tusk’s 36%, a 17-point gap that CBOS recorded in its October survey of 1,028 adults. This margin is wider than the April reading but narrower than July’s 23 points. While 51% rate the president’s work as good, only 33% are satisfied with Tusk as head of government. The pollster notes that 34% distrust Nawrocki and 51% distrust Tusk, confirming that neither leader holds majority backing despite the clear numerical advantage for the executive.
The Constitutional Tribunal dispute
Fieldwork for these figures ended before October 30, when a judge suspended the Constitutional Tribunal’s president and police deployed around the court. Subsequent polls show the electorate remains deeply divided on the legal merits of the standoff. A United Surveys by IBRiS poll conducted on November 2 found that 38.6% said neither side was right, while 28.7% backed Nawrocki and 26.6% supported the government. That result constitutes a tie within the 3% margin of error, suggesting the crisis has not produced a decisive shift in public opinion toward either camp.
SW Research added nuance to this stalemate in an online poll of 803 adults from November 3 to 4. It found that 47.8% believe the government lacks legal grounds to attempt a "revolution" in the tribunal, compared to 33.1% who agree it has such grounds. Furthermore, 41.9% judged Nawrocki’s entry into the court building negatively, while 37.3% viewed it positively. These numbers indicate that while the president retains his overall lead, his specific actions regarding the judiciary have generated significant negative sentiment among a substantial portion of the population.
Election implications and social media claims
Nawrocki’s standing rests heavily on undecided voters, with 95% of PiS supporters rating his work as good versus only 9% of KO voters. Those undecided about their Sejm vote rate him at 62% good to 25% bad. Despite these solid fundamentals, social media claims that 83% of Poles trust him or that eight in ten want Tusk arrested have no support in any published poll. His best trust reading in the past 13 months of CBOS data is 57%.
The political stakes remain high as the parliamentary election approaches in autumn 2027. Tusk’s Civic Coalition leads the party vote with 30.6% against 18% for Law and Justice, yet a possible right-wing alliance could secure 240 of the 460 Sejm seats. Nawrocki told Tusk to end what he calls illegal actions at the tribunal before November 11, a demand with no legal force. The Sejm passed a tax reform by 236 votes to 207 on November 5, which the president has signalled he may refuse to sign. CBOS’ next readings will determine if this fight over the court moves a trust gap that has held since his term began.
