U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Nov. 9 that any post-war security guarantees for Ukraine must be acceptable to Russia. He emphasized that these arrangements are essential for reaching a negotiated settlement to end the conflict. The comments arrive ahead of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi, scheduled for Nov. 10 – 11, where the Kremlin will send senior diplomats and military officials. A senior EU diplomat confirmed that Europe will also be represented by officials from leading national governments, NATO, and the EU at the negotiations on ending the war.
No final plan yet
Rubio admitted that Washington has not settled on a final concrete plan for what the guarantees would look like. He noted that concepts have been discussed about what security guarantees could look like post-conflict. The topic remains in the headlines because it is central to ensuring Ukraine feels secure after the war ends. "And obviously, it has to be something that Russia agrees to as well in order for it to work," he added. When asked if the United States could formalize such guarantees through a treaty, Rubio did not rule out the possibility but pointed to the difficulties of securing Senate approval for treaties. He clarified that while they have discussed the idea, they have not reached that level of detail yet. This lack of specificity creates a significant hurdle for immediate diplomatic progress.
Facilitator role limits
The secretary of state reiterated that security guarantees are critical for Kyiv to accept a potential peace agreement. However, he acknowledged the challenges facing the talks, stating that Washington could facilitate discussions but could not guarantee an agreement. "The United States is not a combatant in that war," he said. "It’s the Russians that are fighting that war, and it’s Ukraine that was invaded and is being attacked and being fought against." Therefore, the U.S. can only serve as a facilitator and inject ideas into those discussions in hopes of arriving at a diplomatic solution. He added that the United States would continue its diplomatic efforts despite the lack of a breakthrough. The administration clearly recognizes its limited leverage in forcing a resolution between the two active parties involved in the ongoing conflict.
