US envoy Steve Witkoff is in St Petersburg to present Vladimir Putin with an updated proposal to end the war in Ukraine following talks in Oslo. These October 20 talks involved Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. In Oslo, Witkoff and Kushner met with President Zelenskiy, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb to discuss a framework including long-term security guarantees, a post-war economic plan, and a broader European security architecture. I find the focus on security guarantees the only part of the 27-point Trump-brokered peace plan that has survived the year. Zelenskiy said these guarantees model NATO’s Article 5, and he told reporters that Witkoff would share the document with Moscow to receive feedback. He added that he was grateful the American side emphasized they will be strong. The US official called the meeting "very productive and constructive" and noted that the parties made "meaningful progress" in their approach to Russia. Store and Stubb, who had both publicly set themselves against the Trump administration’s effort, appeared subdued at the closing press conference and now say staying engaged with Washington matters. Kushner is joining the Putin meeting virtually.
Ukraine faces military pressure and diplomatic shifts
Kyiv faces a dire shortage of supplies as interceptor missiles run dry and Russian missiles arrive unannounced because Washington stopped the satellite feed. Zelenskiy said the US resumed intelligence sharing and ballistic-missile alerts after he spoke to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but he still seeks stable Starlink service and more Patriot missiles. I find Kyiv’s situation desperate as the country runs out of almost everything else. Trump told CBS that Russia is a big machine and that the land they have taken grows larger every week. "Russia, though, is a giant nation. Ukraine is not," Trump said, adding that Zelenskiy must want to settle the war. He also noted that Ukraine lacks an unlimited supply of people. "We have given tremendous amounts to Ukraine. We’ve got nothing back other than high diesel," Trump said. This instability follows a drone strike on October 18 that set the St Petersburg oil terminal ablaze, killing one person and injuring five. While Washington wants a deal before the November midterm elections, European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Europe must be at the table because it decides on sanctions relief. Kallas said, "We also have demands of Russia, and we are not going to give anything away for free." Zelenskiy might give up Donbas for a reliable guarantee. Washington will propose a trilateral meeting involving Trump, Zelenskiy, and Putin.
