Conflicting reports on the drone’s path
A Ukrainian drone exploded in Lithuanian airspace on Sunday, October 18, hitting a moving car. No injuries resulted from the strike. Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius stated there is no doubt the drone entered from the Polish side and confirmed that the evidence indicates the drone is of Ukrainian origin. Lithuanian defense minister Robertas Kaunas, as quoted by broadcaster LRT, contacted the Polish defense minister to request a joint investigation after preliminary information indicated the drone entered from Polish airspace. However, Janusz Sejmej, a spokesman for Poland’s defense ministry, told the Polish Press Agency that radar systems show no confirmation of an object crossing the border from Poland to Lithuania. Polsat reported that unnamed sources at the Polish defense ministry believed the drone took off from within Lithuanian territory, approximately 30 kilometers from the Polish border, before it flew deep into the country. The Polish defense ministry issued a statement on Monday afternoon that strongly refuted those media reports. President Gitanas Nauseda said the incident provides evidence that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is spilling over onto the Eastern flank of NATO and the EU. NATO jets scrambled in response to the incursion on Sunday morning, but they did not visually identify the object. Deividas Matulionis, an advisor to the Lithuanian president, told the Baltic News Service on Monday that he has credible evidence the drone crossed the Polish border. The Lithuanian government maintains that the drone entered its territory via Poland, while the Polish government remains skeptical of such a crossing.
Poland demands an explanation
Ukraine apologized for the incident, claiming that Russian electronic warfare diverted the drone during an operation against military targets in Russia. Heorhii Tykhyi, the spokesman for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, wrote that the incident may have resulted from Russian electronic warfare diverting drones during an operation against legitimate military targets in Russia. He also added that Ukraine will share all relevant information with Lithuanian partners to establish the full circumstances of the incident, though he gave no further information on the type of drone, its launch location, or its target. Vilnius officials suggested the drone likely targeted St. Petersburg before Russian jamming diverted its path. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he will discuss the incident with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Warsaw and wants to clarify the situation through close cooperation with Lithuania. Tusk told a government meeting that he will seek an explanation from Ukraine and count on the full cooperation of the Ukrainian side to precisely explain what happened. He stated he would proceed without emotion and without ill intentions. Tusk also said that Poland does not allow operations to be conducted on or over its territory without the explicit consent of the Polish state. This incident follows previous incursions in March and May this year when Ukrainian drones aimed at Russia entered the airspaces of NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland. Both Poland and Lithuania border the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Moscow’s ally, Belarus. Earlier this year, Polish and Ukrainian ties faced tension after Kyiv named a military unit after the World War II-era Ukrainian Insurgent Army, though President Volodymyr Zelensky said on October 18 that relations have improved.
