The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released data on November 3 showing a sharp shift in public perception regarding Western support. Sixty-one percent of respondents now believe Washington is tired and actively pressing Kyiv to make concessions to Russia, up from fifty-six percent in May. This figure marks a significant increase in distrust toward American intentions during the ongoing conflict.
Shifting alliances and security doubts
Only thirty percent view the United States as a reliable ally, a statistic that has remained unchanged since earlier surveys. Conversely, sixty-nine percent see Europe as a serious partner that wants the war to end on fair terms, up from sixty-four percent previously. Twenty-five percent still consider Europe tired and pushing for an unjust peace. The numbers go to the heart of the US-brokered talks with Russia, where Kyiv has sent its own proposals ahead of a trilateral round in Abu Dhabi. US envoy Jared Kushner has offered Europe only a later seat at the table, which complicates the diplomatic landscape. Any potential agreement rests on security guarantees, yet Ukrainians do not believe the American ones will hold. When asked if partners would help if Russia attacked again after a settlement, fifty-six percent said Europe would while thirty-eight percent said it would not. For the US, the result was reversed: fifty-four percent said it would not help and thirty-two percent said it would, up from twenty-seven percent in April. Anton Grushetskyi, KIIS executive director, wrote that this distrust is one of the main reasons most Ukrainians reject withdrawing troops from the Donetsk region in exchange for such guarantees. In an earlier survey, sixty-one percent rejected handing over the rest of the Donbas for US and European guarantees. More convincing guarantees, such as US and European troops deployed near the front line, could make the public more open to difficult territorial decisions, according to Grushetskyi. Opinion moved during the fieldwork period between October 16 and 29. Between October 16 and 25, sixty-seven percent saw the US as tired and twenty-six percent as reliable; between October 25 and 29 the figures were fifty-six percent and thirty-four percent, back to the May level. The views of Europe did not change across the period.
Fight on sentiment flips to end the war now
Gallup’s latest survey found that sixty-six percent of Ukrainian adults said the country should seek a negotiated end as soon as possible, while twenty-four percent said it should keep fighting until it wins. This represents little change from the previous year but contrasts sharply with 2022, when seventy-three percent backed fighting on and twenty-two percent favoured talks. The same Gallup survey found approval of US leadership in Ukraine at seven percent, with seventy-nine percent disapproving, down from sixty-six percent approval in 2022. This decline is the largest five-year fall Gallup has recorded across more than fourteen countries. Seventy percent said a lasting end to the fighting soon was unlikely. Read alongside KIIS’s results, the picture is of a public that wants talks but not on terms set in Washington. That leaves Europe’s guarantees, and whether European capitals get a seat before a deal is struck, as the factor most likely to move Ukrainian opinion on territory.
