Domestic reform remains the priority
The Student List won 52.71% of the vote and 140 seats in the October 25 snap election, ending 14 years of dominance by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party. The ruling SNS party took 39.17% of the vote and 104 seats. I see this as a victory for domestic reform rather than a radical shift in how Serbia treats its neighbors. Ilija Srdanovic, the leading candidate, told Insajder TV that EU membership is not the movement’s immediate priority. He argued that Serbia must restore media freedom and public debate before addressing accession, and he wants citizens to decide on membership through a referendum. Srdanovic told the BBC in September that Serbia’s foreign policy must follow the country’s strategic interests, its energy dependence, and its cooperation with Russia. This domestic focus will frustrate EU leaders who want closer alignment.
Balancing Russia and the EU
The Student List’s decision to prioritize domestic issues over immediate EU accession will disappoint EU leaders who want Serbia to align its foreign policy more closely with the bloc. Serbia’s reliance on Russian energy, which provides 80% of its natural gas imports, makes a sudden shift in policy against Moscow difficult. During the campaign, the movement issued a statement saying it would maintain a "principled stance against imposing restrictive measures on the Russian Federation." I find it unlikely that the new government will abandon its long-standing ties with Russia or recognize Kosovo’s independence, as both moves would trigger massive domestic backlash from the population. The movement’s members have not indicated an intention to recognize Kosovo’s independence, and some have criticized Vucic for making concessions during negotiations over that territory. Serbia also condemned violations of Ukraine’s territorial integrity at the United Nations. Belgrade’s opposition to sanctions rests on its history with Western sanctions in the 1990s, which damaged the economy and made life difficult for ordinary people.
| Election Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Student List Vote | 52.71% |
| Student List Seats | 140 |
| SNS Vote | 39.17% |
| SNS Seats | 104 |
The Student List identifies the EU as the most important economic partner and supports closer strategic partnerships with member states. However, the coalition includes both right-wing nationalists and liberals, and these ideological differences will likely prevent the government from making any sweeping changes to its international alliances. Serbia must still balance EU interests with economic ties to China, including investment from Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, and the United States. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed readiness to support reforms in the rule of law and media freedom. Even as it manages these tensions, the country has already moved toward European integration, such as when Serbian banks began offering payments through the Single Euro Payments Area in May 2026. The new leadership’s first decisions will show whether it can maintain the country’s existing relationships while delivering domestic reforms.
