The threat to Ukrainian qualification
The Court of Arbitration for Sport overruled the decision of the international ice hockey federation on October 30 to exclude Russian athletes. This ruling forces the return of Russia to international tournaments, a move that Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha says is staining the ice with Ukrainian blood. Because the IIHF previously agreed that Russia will return to the same top-tier level they occupied before their exclusion, Ukraine faces a direct risk as the last team to qualify for the men’s ice hockey world cup. Sybiha called on the international sporting community and all partners to take a firm stand against the readmission. The tournament takes place in Germany in May 2027.
Anders Larsson, who sits on the IIHF, told Sweden’s Aftonbladet newspaper on October 30 that the federation has no choice but to follow the CAS decision. He said it feels anything but good, but sports regulations require compliance. Larsson ruled out a boycott, though he maintains that Russia cannot participate. He said technical decisions about the practical implementation of the CAS decision will only happen within the next week. Sybiha is instead focusing on travel bans and has called on governments to deny Russian players entry to their territory.
| Event | Location | Date |
|---|---|---|
| World Junior Ice Hockey Championships | Canada | December 2026 |
| Men’s Ice Hockey World Cup | Germany | May 2027 |
Russia’s first tournament after the ban is the World Junior Ice Hockey Championships in Canada in December 2026. Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand said all options are on the table. Lithuania already lost its hosting rights for a world pentathlon tournament after it rejected visa requests for Russia. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said on Nov 1 that she will take action to block Russian athletes from entering Finland. This follows her October push to get the EU to act. Germany has not commented on banning Russians, though the EU is working on the idea. I find the IIHF’s inability to maintain the exclusion despite their previous agreement to protect the qualifying structure deeply frustrating.
Security discussions in Istanbul
President Volodymyr Zelensky met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Presidential Dolmabahce Office on October 31. They discussed bilateral relations, security in the Black Sea, and real diplomatic prospects. Zelensky said the meeting was substantive and thanked Erdogan for his readiness to support ideas for bringing peace and security closer. The visit comes as attacks by both Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea have increased in recent months. Ankara called for a moratorium on strikes against vessels in August after incidents involving Turkish-flagged ships.
Erdogan said that attacks against civilian vessels and actions that further escalate tensions in the Sea serve no one’s interests. He said the two leaders discussed efforts to bring about peace in Ukraine, and Zelensky said his goal is to ensure that the shipping corridor continues to exist and operates effectively. While Kyiv says it is ready to accept a moratorium on attacks, Moscow has shown no interest in de-escalating the situation. Erdogan recalled the July 2025 Ukraine-Russia talks hosted by Turkey as an example of positive diplomacy.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed uncertainty about negotiated peace during the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Atlanta. He told reporters that he does not know if negotiated peace is achievable in Ukraine. He added that no one there is claiming to be on the verge of a negotiated settlement. Turkey maintains a balancing act as a peacebroker, having helped establish the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022 and hosting three rounds of peace talks in 2025. Zelensky also expects to meet with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew during his visit.
