Relief in Russian regions
I see a clear easing of fuel shortages in 15 Russian regions, including Crimea and Sevastopol. This improvement follows a sharp slowdown in Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries because U.S. President Donald Trump pressured Kyiv to halt these strikes. Fuel shortages in Russia escalated in mid-summer as Ukrainian strikes disrupted the country’s oil refineries, leading to long lines at gas stations and widespread restrictions on fuel purchases. These attacks targeted a major source of revenue for the Russian state budget. Trump has falsely blamed Ukrainian attacks for high global fuel prices rather than attributing those prices to his war against Iran. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine halted attacks on Russian oil refineries for three days after Trump unilaterally declared an energy truce between Ukraine and Russia on Oct. 11, even though Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure during that period. While Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces had not received orders to refrain from attacking Russian refineries, the frequency of the strikes dropped significantly in recent weeks. The most recent strikes hit the Ryazan refinery on Oct. 15 and in the city of St. Petersburg on Oct. 18.
Local fuel limits and Washington pressure
I find the persistence of fuel restrictions in certain Russian regions disappointing. In Tambov Oblast, authorities still limit the amount of fuel an individual can purchase and prohibit filling jerry cans, while some districts in Leningrad Oblast continue to experience significant fuel supply difficulties. As Trump pressed Kyiv to stop striking Russian refineries, Ukraine also faced what Ukrainian officials believed was a pressure campaign from Washington involving various intelligence and technical services. The country experienced disruptions to its early-warning systems for incoming Russian ballistic missiles which rely on U.S. intelligence, as well as restrictions on Starlink’s military-grade service, which Ukraine uses to operate interceptor drones against Russian attack drones on the battlefield. Russia has continued attacking Ukrainian energy facilities even as the energy truce was discussed. Despite the pressure from Washington, most Ukrainians want Kyiv to continue striking Russian refineries even if the U.S. threatens to end or reduce its support, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll released on Oct. 28.
