Neptune strike hits Volgograd airfield
Ukraine’s Navy reported on October 29 that Neptune missiles destroyed two Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber jets at the Marinovka military airfield in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast. The strike hit the base of the 11th Mixed Aviation Regiment near the settlement of Oktyabrsky, which belongs to the 4th Mixed Aviation Division of Russia’s 4th Air and Air Defense Forces Army. I find the loss of these jets significant because the Su-34 is used to launch guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian cities and frontline settlements. The Navy provided no visual confirmation. These Neptune cruise missiles, which gained fame for sinking the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva in 2022, can strike targets up to 1,000 kilometers away. The destroyed aircraft belong to the 11th Mixed Aviation Regiment, according to the Navy.
Russian aircraft losses and production math
HUR reported that Russia had approximately 140 Su-34 fighter-bombers of various modifications in service as of October 22, including the modernized Su-34M. Russia’s current fleet includes various modifications of the Su-34. Since the full-scale invasion began, Russia lost 43 Su-34 aircraft and damaged seven more. "Such losses are quite significant for the aggressor’s aircraft fleet, whose restoration requires a lengthy production cycle, substantial financial resources, and specialized industrial cooperation," HUR said. Russia produces only 14 to 18 Su-34 aircraft annually, meaning the 43 destroyed aircraft equal roughly 2.5 to 3 years of production capacity.
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Su-34 destroyed | 43 |
| Total Su-34 damaged | 7 |
| Annual Su-34 production | 14 to 18 |
| Total Su-34 in service (Oct 22) | ~140 |
| Neptune strike range | 1,000 km |
The October 15 strike at the Borisoglebsk military airfield in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast also used Neptune missiles to destroy four Su-34M bomber-jets and damage two others. I find the persistent manufacturing and modernization of these aircraft by Russia a difficulty for Ukrainian defense, as Russia continues to manufacture and modernize the aircraft to maintain its fleet and sustain aerial attacks against Ukraine. This ongoing production allows Russia to compensate for losses despite the significant time and resources needed to replace each aircraft. Replacing these aircraft requires substantial financial resources and specialized industrial cooperation. The loss of 43 aircraft is equivalent to nearly three full years of Russia’s current production cycle.
