The 1997 rollback terms
A document dated November 10, circulated in Abu Dhabi, revives Russia’s demand for NATO to pull back to its 1997 positions. This non-paper, which lacks a letterhead or signature, says that NATO countries must rule out enlargement and "any military activity" in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, or even Central Asia. I find these terms a blatant attempt to freeze the status quo, which mirrors the 2021 draft agreement Moscow sent to the West two months before the full-scale invasion. The document also calls for an end to the supply of any type of Western weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. Moscow would accept Ukraine’s EU accession only if Kyiv stays out of the bloc’s common defence policy. Furthermore, Russia now demands that France and the UK rule out extending their own nuclear deterrent to other European countries, which targets the growing effort to defend Europe without the US. A return to the 1997 lines would strip allied forces from Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, a rollback that Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov previously tied to a June 2025 end to the war.
Diplomatic reactions in Abu Dhabi
Russian delegation leader Vladimir Medinsky called for a sweeping overhaul of Europe’s security arrangements, while Bild reported that Russia wants Finland out of NATO and the rest of Donbas handed over. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in Dublin on November 12 that these conditions are "unacceptable" to Ukraine and Europe, especially to countries like Poland, after US envoys briefed President Zelenskiy on the Russian terms. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told the Russians that much had changed since December 2021 and that they were open to new proposals. On November 12 in Moscow, Putin told the Americans that the 2021 proposal still reflects "our vision of the pillars of an indivisible security architecture," according to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov. General Alexus Grynkewich, who is also Nato’s supreme allied commander, sat in on the Abu Dhabi talks and pressed the Russians to explain their concerns, according to two people in the room. Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Luc Frieden said that Washington cannot talk about the future of Europe without Europeans at the table. Putin meets US President Donald Trump at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19, just days after these demands surfaced. Zelenskiy has stated that Russia’s security demands can be discussed, but only after the war ends.
