Armenia’s former Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan argues that pursuing EU membership is unrealistic and risks deepening the country’s dependence on Russia rather than reducing it. This op-ed arrives as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan states Yerevan could formally apply to join the EU in 2027 or 2028. Grigoryan, who remained in Pashinyan’s government until 2026 after surviving the 2018 Velvet Revolution, was replaced by Alen Simonyan following the June elections. Some observers, including Hakob Kareptyan, a former Mayor’s spokesperson, interpret the critique as an attempt for Grigoryan to position himself as an opposition figure against the administration he once served.
The illusion of membership
In an article titled "The illusion of EU membership" published on Medialab, Grigoryan responds to Republic Party leader Aram Sargsyan, who questioned how one can compare dependence on the EU with dependence on Russia. Grigoryan claims his position is well known to his former colleagues and asserts that Armenia often confuses its aspirations with what is realistically achievable. He writes that when assessing prospects, one must consider political, geographical, and economic factors that make the goal unrealistic. His main concern is what happens if Armenia continues pursuing a goal with no realistic prospect of being achieved. In his view, every new step taken along this path does not reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia but deepens it. Since independence, previous attempts to move closer to the West have repeatedly triggered Russian pressure and increased dependence on Moscow. This includes Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, which it joined as a founding member in 1992, and the Eurasian Economic Union, which it joined in 2015.
Deepening ties and democratic risk
Grigoryan argues that the same history appears to be repeating itself under a much more dangerous scenario. He notes a growing threat of Armenia being drawn into the Russia – Belarus Union State alongside discussions towards EU membership. According to him, Armenia’s room to manoeuvre narrowed since the adoption of the law seeking EU accession in March 2025. He reports that pro-Russian political forces saw their votes rise from 330,000 to 546,000, while Rossotrudnichestvo initiated the opening of new Russian Houses in regional areas. Furthermore, the Russian option for building a new nuclear power plant could no longer be ruled out, and Russia’s involvement in constructing the Ajapnyak metro station in Yerevan was already being discussed. A symbolic expression of this trend was that the chairmanship of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on European Integration ended up in the hands of a pro-Russian force. Sona Ghazaryan, Deputy Chair of the ruling Civil Contract party’s committee, called the analysis "healthy criticism that could spark public debate." She defended the European course, describing the prospect of submitting an application as "a rational position." However, Grigoryan insists that without Western security guarantees, Armenia’s state immune system is simply unable to withstand Moscow’s economic, political, and hybrid pressures. He warns that aligning with EU sanctions on Russia and Iran could damage relations with both, noting that Iran is a vital lifeline. He concludes that the unrealistic agenda pushes Armenia towards a dead end, risking the genuine democracy achieved through the 2018 Revolution in favour of a mythical form associated with EU membership.
