Baltic states and Poland demand end to Russian investment treaties
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland sent a joint statement to the European Commission on November 2 to end bilateral investment treaties between Russia and 17 EU states. They argue the treaties are used to influence EU policy to Moscow’s advantage. These four nations argue that the treaties let sanctioned individuals bring cases against member states and the EU before international courts, which poses a threat to the EU’s economic security as a whole. I find the push for a solution in the first quarter of 2027 a logical way to address these vulnerabilities. The 17 states involved include Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, and Sweden, plus a shared treaty between Belgium and Luxembourg. While Lithuania terminated its treaty in October 2025, Estonia and Latvia never held one, and Poland’s treaty never entered into force. The treaties also cover EU companies in Russia, where Moscow seized assets of Danone, Carlsberg, OMV, Fortum, and Uniper in 2023. These treaties allow Russia to influence the policies and economies of member states through businesses, according to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.
Legal risks and the sunset problem
Legal disputes show the direct impact of these treaties. Mikhail Fridman is seeking $16bn from Luxembourg under a 1989 treaty and has taken the Netherlands to arbitration under the Soviet-Dutch treaty of the same year. In September 2025, four unnamed investors filed notices of dispute against Belgium over assets frozen at Euroclear: these claims are part of $62bn of sanctions-related disputes where more than half of the ongoing cases aim at Ukraine rather than EU states. The Kyiv Independent reported nine arbitrations against Belgium by September. Belgium has cited legal risks in resisting the release of frozen Russian reserves held at Euroclear. Terminating a treaty requires 12 months of notice and faces difficulty from sunset clauses that keep existing investments protected for a decade or more. The Commission told the Kyiv Independent in September that the treaties are "not consistent" with EU investment policy.
| Treaty Country | Protection Duration |
|---|---|
| Italy, Spain, Sweden | 10 years |
| Germany | 20 years |
| Most others | 15 years |
Juraj Majcin of the European Policy Center called termination "mostly symbolic". Christof Danz, a spokesperson for Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank, said terminating them could erase a last resort area for principles of fairness in Russia. I find that a treaty ended in 2027 could still support claims in the 2040s, a serious obstacle to the security goals of the Baltic states. Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank, which lost €2.1bn in January, has chosen not to invoke its treaty.
