Coalition priorities
The three-party coalition government in office since late 2025 follows a path dictated by domestic political convenience. Public opinion polls from 2021 to 2025 showed that more than half the Czech population prefers staying in the middle between the West and the East. Andrej Babis leads the ANO party, which functions as a catch-all force for lukewarm centrism to keep the coalition together. The junior partners, Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and Motorists for Themselves, push more radical agendas. SPD opposes immigration, the EU, and NATO, while also spreading anti-Ukrainian vitriol. The Motorists, led by Foreign Minister Petr Macinka, want to act as a MAGA movement in Europe. Observers feared a move away from the pro-Western policy of Petr Fiala. I see this coalition as a way to cater to voters who prefer staying in the middle.
| Party | Role | Policy Stance |
|---|---|---|
| ANO | Lead party | Avoids costly international commitments |
| SPD | Junior partner | Anti-immigration and anti-NATO |
| Motorists | Junior partner | Culture-war politics and Euroscepticism |
The Motorists are the intellectual heirs of former president Vaclav Klaus. This party uses culture-war politics to push its agenda, including personnel reorganizations and the defunding of human rights and democratization support programs. These programs were major pillars of Czech foreign policy after 1993. Such actions also escalated conflicts with President Petr Pavel. This policy shift occurred because the Motorists and SPD wanted to disrupt existing foreign policy priorities during the election campaign. I find the government’s emphasis on "economic diplomacy" to be a general idea rather than a thought-through strategy or plan. Such an approach makes little sense in an era of geopolitical fragmentation and trade securitization.
Reduced international presence
The transition from the pro-Western government of Petr Fiala involves a reduction in international engagement. Defense spending in Czechia remains among the lowest in NATO, as the government shows no ambition for a substantive increase. The prime minister’s financial conflicts of interest could sour relations with EU institutions, alongside potential rule-of-law breaches regarding an anti-NGO law, the independence of the public service media, and the autonomy of civil servants.
The government maintains a lukewarm attitude toward Ukraine, as it does not challenge the designation of Russia as the aggressor and has reduced aid to the country. The government refuses to participate in the EU-wide loan to Ukraine that occurred in late 2025 and will likely refuse the 45-billion-euro support package currently being negotiated for the end of this year. Although the ammunition initiative of the previous government remains, the current administration contributes no funds to it. Ukraine’s defense has not been actively emphasized as a major issue, and aid has been reduced as part of the general cuts. Cooperation between the Visegrad Group countries remains stuck at the rhetorical level, with no real successes beyond broad agreements on migration or the EU budget. Future success for a revived V4 is not guaranteed because of differences in threat perceptions among Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia.
Risks of strategic laziness
I find the government’s approach to be a result of strategic laziness that risks Czechia’s international credibility. Unlike Hungary under Viktor Orban, which uses multi-vector hedging as a deliberate political calculation, the Czech government’s ambiguity stems from a desire for cost-free populism. This "Euro-Atlanticism by inertia" maintains NATO and EU membership as non-negotiable, yet fails to provide the resources necessary for collective defense. The government acts as an unpredictable spectator on the West’s eastern flank, where it occupies a critical transit route. When partners invest heavily in ensuring common security and burden-sharing, a member’s ambiguity weakens the entire bloc’s credibility and leaves the alliance vulnerable at its weakest link. This pattern of free-riding and muddling through through vague national interests makes the country an unreliable partner.
The government’s bilateral relationship with Israel remains strong, as this is a non-issue in the Czech political sphere and bears no significant political cost. However, the lack of a coherent strategy for the rest of the world is evident. Thinking about security without considering values is preposterous. If Czechia continues to act like this, it puts its relationships with partners and major allies at stake.
