New roadmaps for frontrunner states
The European Commission set specific targets for Albania, Moldova, Montenegro, and Ukraine to move their membership bids forward in an annual Enlargement Package adopted on November 4. The Commission presented indicative roadmaps for these four countries to turn progress into a more structured process. Montenegro has provisionally closed 21 negotiating chapters and could complete the provisional closure of the remaining chapters by the end of 2026, subject to agreement among EU member states. After opening its final negotiating cluster and meeting rule-of-law benchmarks, Albania aims to conclude accession negotiations by 2027. Because it met conditions for opening all remaining negotiating clusters, Moldova could finish negotiations by early 2028. Ukraine faces a target of closing negotiations by the end of 2028. "The significant progress achieved by some candidates over the last year allows us to turn the promise of enlargement into reality," Ursula von der Leyen said. Albania met interim benchmarks on rule-of-law chapters and saw its largest civic mobilisation since the transition to democracy. Moldova made progress towards meeting interim benchmarks under the fundamentals cluster. Ukraine opened four clusters despite the disruption from Russia’s invasion and maintains an effective anti-corruption framework through specialised, independent bodies.
| Country | Target for Closing Negotiations |
|---|---|
| Montenegro | End of 2026 |
| Albania | 2027 |
| Moldova | Early 2028 |
| Ukraine | End of 2028 |
Stalled progress in the region
The assessment is much harder on other candidates. I find the Commission’s assessment of Georgia especially harsh, as it describes the country as a candidate in name only while the ruling party undermines democratic principles and enables state capture. Serbia made no substantive progress in negotiations. Political polarisation is increasing in Belgrade. Low alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy contradicts the government’s commitment to membership. Belgrade must prioritise democratic standards and judicial independence. The Commission also called for the implementation of all obligations arising from the EU-facilitated dialogue, which is central to Serbia’s European perspective. The newly elected government in Belgrade has a strong mandate to reverse these negative trends. Bosnia and Herzegovina is disengaging through political posturing and anti-EU narratives. Sarajevo needs to establish bodies swiftly. Turkey’s gap between stated ambition and democratic record is widening. The problems that led to the suspension of accession negotiations in 2018 remain unresolved.
Specific status for other candidates
North Macedonia continues preparations for opening negotiations but has yet to adopt its promised constitutional amendments. Kosovo’s reform process stalled during a recent institutional crisis. The Commission noted progress in tackling organised crime. The Commission lifted measures against Kosovo after the transfer of local governance in the north. This resumed financial assistance and engagement through the Stabilisation and Association Process. Kosovo’s membership application could receive an opinion from the Commission if the Council requests it. Ukraine must focus on meeting interim rule-of-law benchmarks and implementing roadmaps covering democratic institutions and public administration. The Commission plans to launch dialogues with enlargement partners over the next six months to identify opportunities for further integration in areas like energy, transport, digital services, and defence. The package seeks to deepen integration with candidate countries before they join the bloc. The Commission presented a common framework to make this process more coherent and predictable, ensuring that closer integration remains conditional on progress with reforms. These recommendations will now go to the Council, where EU member states will decide on the next steps in the accession process.
