Exit poll projections and turnout figures
Exit polls published after voting ended on November 1 indicate that incumbent President Iliana Iotova will win the Sunday presidential runoff. Iotova and her running mate Kiril Valchev secured between 50.7% and 52.5% of the vote, while former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov and his running mate Georgi Kandev received between 43.4% and 44.7%. Central Election Commission data showed turnout at 19.33% by 4 p.m., compared with 15.95% at the same time during the first round on October 25. Trend estimated participation at 24% by 6 p.m., which is higher than the 19.8% recorded a week earlier. The first round on October 25 recorded the lowest participation in a Bulgarian presidential election.
| Agency | Iotova (%) | Gyurov (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | 51.6 | 43.4 |
| Alpha Research | 52.5 | 43.4 |
| Market Links | 50.7 | 44 |
| Gallup International | 51 | 44 |
| Myara | 51 | 44.7 |
Market Links estimated the difference between the candidates at around 120,000 votes, while Alpha Research put it at about 170,000 votes. Both agencies stated that a reversal of these results is highly unlikely. Iotova, who is 61, became acting president in January after Rumen Radev resigned to enter parliamentary politics, and her victory would make her the first woman directly elected to the office in Bulgaria. The polling agencies provided various estimates for the outcome. Trend put support for Iotova at 51.6% against 43.4% for Gyurov, while Alpha Research gave her 52.5% compared with 43.4% for her opponent. Market Links reported 50.7% for Iotova and 44% for Gyurov, while Gallup International estimated the result at 51% for Iotova and 44% for Gyurov. Myara gave her 51% against 44.7% for Gyurov.
Candidate platforms and regional security
The election campaign showed divisions over Bulgaria’s relations with Russia and support for Ukraine. These tensions followed a series of drone attacks on merchant vessels off the Bulgarian coast in the Black Sea. Iotova, who has the support of the ruling Progressive Bulgaria party, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and nationalist VMRO, advocated for dialogue with Moscow. During a televised debate on October 29, she argued that further financial and military support for Ukraine would bring more destruction and deaths. Gyurov, who has the backing of the pro-Western reformist parties Change Continues and Democratic Bulgaria, consistently supported Ukraine. Earlier this year, Gyurov signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv while serving as caretaker prime minister.
The presidency carries influence over foreign policy and national security, even though the position is largely ceremonial. The president also has the authority to appoint caretaker governments and plays a role in resolving political crises. Iotova has already served as acting head of state for most of the year.
Irregularities and final results
The Central Election Commission reported 56 instances of irregularities by late afternoon. Most of these reports concerned election campaigning and the publication of opinion polls on election day. The commission expects to announce the final results within three days. Turnout remained low, though it exceeded the participation levels seen in the first round on October 25.
Turnout in the first round on October 25 was the lowest recorded in a Bulgarian presidential election. By 4 p.m. on Sunday, the Central Election Commission noted that participation stood at 19.33%, which is an increase from the 15.95% recorded at the same time during the first round. Trend estimated that participation reached 24% by 6 p.m., compared to 19.8% during the previous week. The 56 reports of irregularities submitted to the Central Election Commission primarily involve issues regarding election campaigning and the release of opinion polls. The commission expects to provide the final official results within three days.
