The widening gap in the Enlargement Package
The European Commission will release its annual reports on potential EU members on November 4, providing accession roadmaps for the four frontrunner countries: Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, and Albania. These roadmaps will outline reforms to be enacted, estimates on when those reforms will be complete, and an end date by which the Commission predicts each country will be technically ready to join the EU. I see the widening gap between Chisinau and Kyiv as the most obvious trend in this year’s membership process. Moldova has already gone through a similar exercise to Ukraine’s and is therefore ready to get sign-off on rule of law and anti-corruption benchmarks. European diplomats told the Kyiv Independent that this means Moldova is significantly ahead of Ukraine in the reform process. One EU official noted that Moldova’s pace of reform is essentially unmatched in the history of the bloc, recalling only Hungary in 2002 as having similar levels of enthusiasm. President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains that star-reformer Moldova should not move ahead of Ukraine, but the EU has linked the accession processes of both countries in tandem. For Kyiv, the stakes are high as the Commission is poised to give the country its first projected end date for accession talks.
| Metric | Ukraine | Moldova |
|---|---|---|
| Enlargement Clusters Unlocked | 4 of 6 | N/A |
| Reform Pace | Slowed in 2026 | Unmatched |
| Rule of Law Benchmarks | Pending | Completed |
| Financial Support Released | 8 billion euros | N/A |
Ukraine’s legislative stall and the rule of law
The Commission’s report on Ukraine will cover all 33 chapters of the EU accession criteria and assess the extent of Kyiv’s progress since the report released last year. Ukraine has successfully unlocked four of its six enlargement clusters, and it expects to unlock the final two in December. Once the final two enlargement clusters are unlocked, which is expected in December, the next requirement will be to meet a set of interim benchmarks related to rule of law and anti-corruption topics. Although Ukraine’s reforms released more than 8 billion euros ($8.9 billion) in tied financial support, reform progress slowed for much of 2026 because the Ukrainian Parliament blocked or slow-walked major legislation. I find the legislative paralysis in Kyiv to be the most frustrating obstacle to its accession. The task force, which is co-chaired by Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi, meets online twice a week and aims to complete its work over the next four months. This group comprises representatives from Ukraine’s European integration ministry, the Parliament, and technical experts from the European Commission.
Institutional failures and agricultural concerns
The selection process for the prosecutor general remains a major point of contention. The EU demands a merit-based appointment process that specifically involves international experts to ensure impartiality. In Ukraine, the president appoints the prosecutor general with the approval of the Parliament. This role faced intense scrutiny in September after Ruslan Kravchenko fled to Austria following his dismissal. He left following a corruption probe. I find the lack of transparency in these judicial appointments to be a serious setback. While Reporters Without Borders ranks Ukraine’s press freedom better than the United States or several EU members, journalists investigating corruption among top officials or abuses in the military have complained of pressure, including lawsuits, controversial court rulings, threats, and smear campaigns on social media. I also find the agricultural situation to be an unresolved problem that could change the requirements for Ukraine’s accession. Brussels is currently reflecting on how to integrate Ukraine’s massive and structurally different agricultural sector into an uncompetitive EU whose rural communities depend heavily on subsidies. The report provides a snapshot of where Ukraine stands in its accession process rather than acting as a binding document, meaning EU countries can still change their stance on Ukrainian agriculture or introduce additional requirements.
