Abramovich and the Brest negotiations
Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko claims Roman Abramovich acted as the central figure in the 2023 Brest peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Goncharenko wrote on X that while Alexander Rodnyansky participated, Abramovich drove the 2023 peace treaty plan leaked to the Financial Times. This draft would have required Ukraine to recognize Russian control of Crimea for 30 years and pass a law prohibiting the military retaking of the peninsula. The plan also would have given most of the four annexed regions back to Ukraine. I find the specific demand for a 30-year recognition period to be a stark detail within the leaked document. Abramovich, the former governor of Chukotka, was Russia’s top oligarch at the end of the Yeltsin era and belonged to the Family clique, including Tatyana Yumasheva, who helped select Vladimir Putin for the roles of Prime Minister and President. Abramovich has acted as a go-between for Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy since the first weeks of the war. Putin approved his role as a mediator in March 2022, and Abramovich attended the first round of talks in Gomel, Belarus. His mediation role previously involved a meeting in Kyiv on March 3, 2022, where Abramovich and negotiator Rustem Umerov reportedly suffered symptoms consistent with chemical poisoning, such as peeling skin and temporary loss of vision.
Specifics of the 2023 proposal
The 2023 proposal included several specific territorial and financial concessions. According to Goncharenko, Russia was prepared to relinquish control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and give up Melitopol to ensure the security of the land corridor. However, the Russians refused to give up Tokmak because they feared Ukrainian artillery could cut the corridor. The draft agreement, which the Financial Times leaked, required Ukraine to recognize Russian control of Crimea for 30 years while also providing a land corridor consisting of a highway and a railway built at Russia’s expense. The plan also proposed that the $300bn in frozen assets fund the rebuilding of all of Ukraine, including the occupied territories. NATO states would have guaranteed the ceasefire and protected Ukraine, while Russia would have opened separate talks with the US on its own security guarantees. Since the 2023 plan failed, Putin has hardened his line and now insists that Ukraine cede all of the Donbas and the four regions Russia annexed in September 2022.
| Feature | 2023 Draft Condition |
|---|---|
| Crimea Status | Recognition of Russian control for 30 years |
| Land Corridor | Highway and railway built at Russia’s expense |
| Frozen Assets | $300bn used for all Ukrainian reconstruction |
| Nuclear Plant | Russia relinquishes Zaporizhzhia plant |
| Territorial Swap | Russia gives up Melitopol but keeps Tokmak |
| NATO Status | NATO states guarantee ceasefire and protect Ukraine |
The Platform and the Istanbul failure
A private group called "the Platform" carried messages between the White House and the Kremlin from October 2022. This group included Connecticut lawyer Richard Conn, investment banker Bob Foresman, Matthias Warnig, and other members. In January 2023, the group met in Gran Canaria to draw up a peace plan that Rodnyansky intended to carry to Kyiv. Matthias Warnig told the group on February 1, 2023, that Vladimir Putin accepted the proposed front line freeze but ruled out Ukrainian membership in NATO. Zelenskiy rejected the proposal at the time because Rodnyansky claimed Zelenskiy and Andriy Yermak would not consider territorial concessions, causing the Platform to lose momentum after Putin told Warnig that Jake Sullivan told the Kremlin the US had not approved the plan.
The 2023 plan follows the failed 2022 Istanbul peace deal, where the Ukrainian delegation included David Arakhamia, Rustem Umerov, Oleksandr Chaly and other officials. Russia led its team with Vladimir Medinsky and Alexander Fomin. In Istanbul, Ukraine offered to declare itself permanently neutral, non-nuclear, and outside military blocs in exchange for binding guarantees from Russia, the US, the UK, China, France, and Turkey. Medinsky noted that Kyiv also offered a written commitment not to retake Crimea by force, and Russia promised to reduce operations around Kyiv. However, the West’s refusal to offer the security deals baked into the Istanbul agreement caused the collapse of the deal. Abramovich remains a channel to the Kremlin, and Zelenskiy told Sky News this summer that the billionaire visited Kyiv in May to carry messages about a ceasefire and the refusal to give up Donbas.
