Orpo in Kyiv amid missile strikes
Petteri Orpo arrived in Kyiv on October 22 to show "strong support" for Ukraine as the country prepares for the winter. He intends to support the specific reforms needed for Ukraine’s EU membership. Orpo also visited a school that a Russian drone damaged during an attack earlier this October. This visit follows a meeting between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on October 21. After Witkoff met with Putin, Moscow launched several waves of ballistic missiles and drones at Kyiv, killing at least one person and injuring more than 20 people according to Ukrainian officials. I view the Russian strikes in broad daylight on October 22 while Orpo was in the capital as proof of Moscow’s unwillingness to cease its attacks.
Steve Witkoff met Zelensky and European partners in Oslo on October 20 to discuss peace proposals. Following those talks, Putin said Moscow was ready to resume negotiations. Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine supports trilateral peace talks involving the U.S. and Russia. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has called for Europe to play a bigger role in efforts to end the war, said he would be ready to represent Europe in peace talks if asked.
Russian military losses since the invasion
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on October 22 that Russia lost 1,572,790 troops in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022. This total includes 2,250 casualties that Russian forces suffered over the past day. I note that Ukraine’s General Staff does not reveal its own losses due to operational secrecy, though the equipment losses since the start of the invasion include:
| Russian Equipment Losses | Quantity |
|---|---|
| Tanks | 12,439 |
| Armored combat vehicles | 25,594 |
| Vehicles and fuel tanks | 165,641 |
| Artillery systems | 51,447 |
| Multiple-launch rocket systems | 2,229 |
| Air defense systems | 1,719 |
| Aircraft | 449 |
| Helicopters | 356 |
| Unmanned ground vehicles | 2,997 |
| Ships and boats | 35 |
| Submarines | 2 |
The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties at roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. A January 2026 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Ukraine likely suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties from February 2022 to December 2025, of which between 100,000 and 140,000 are thought to be killed in action. On February 4, Volodymyr Zelensky told France TV that at least 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers died in action since the full-scale war began. Intense drone attacks and fighting make it extremely difficult for Ukraine to retrieve the bodies of fallen soldiers that are needed for DNA confirmation.
