Russian technology and combat data
I see a growing military imbalance as Russia provides North Korea with military technology, operational know-how, and combat data in exchange for ammunition, missiles, laborers, and soldiers. The New York Times reported on October 23 that this cooperation stems from an expanding informal military alliance between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Russian telemetry and performance feedback improved the guidance accuracy and maneuverability of North Korean tactical ballistic missiles. These missiles now hit modern, Western-supplied air defenses in Ukraine, which provides Pyongyang a live combat laboratory. Russia also helped North Korea build production lines for strike drones and loitering munitions. I think the power of North Korea to swamp defenses with cheap drones is a major problem.
Escalation and regional response
In early October, North Korea test-fired a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. South Korean and Japanese tracking put the flight at 700 km, but Pyongyang claimed 1,000 km. On October 8, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia is sharing jet-powered drone technology with North Korea, stating, "They’re sharing with North Korea all the technologies." I view the massive increase in North Korean military capabilities as a direct threat to the stability of the peninsula and the security of its neighbors.
| Metric | Data |
|---|---|
| North Korean troops in Russia | 14,000 to 15,000 |
| Monthly Russian Geran-4 production | 3,000 units |
| South Korean defense spending target | 3.5% of GDP |
South Korea responded to the North’s test by testing its own home-built hypersonic ballistic missile while President Lee Jae-myung watched from the sidelines. This response followed a September drill where a North Korean drone swarm attacked an island target alongside cruise and ballistic missiles. I find it alarming that Russia uses a formula of simultaneous drone, cruise, and ballistic missile strikes that mimics the tactics used against Ukraine, specifically drawing on a production run of some 3,000 jet-powered Geran-4s built to outrun interceptors. Since 2024, Ukrainian and South Korean estimates put the number of North Korean troops sent to Russia at 14,000 to 15,000, most of whom went to the Kursk region. This trade follows the June 2024 treaty signed by Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang. In a birthday message to Putin on October 7, Kim Jong Un promised to broaden cooperation and predicted victory in Russia’s "sacred war of justice". I find the prospect of North Korean troops striking the US with nuclear weapons, if Russian help provides that ability, terrifying.
