Technical negotiations in Abu Dhabi
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced on Nov. 3 that Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. will hold trilateral peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11. I find the specific agenda for these talks more useful than the general objectives, though the territorial disputes remain massive hurdles. The technical negotiations aim to address a potential energy and maritime ceasefire, the exchange of military and civilian captives, and the return of Ukrainian children who were abducted by Russian forces. Witkoff wrote on X that discussions will focus on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps toward peace. These rounds follow weeks of work by Ukrainian, American, and Russian officials. Zelensky suggested that one or two rounds of technical talks could lead to a trilateral summit involving himself, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Putin. This follows the willingness of Zelensky and Putin to hold negotiations after they met Witkoff in Oslo, Norway, and St. Petersburg, Russia, in October. Zelensky and Putin have not held direct talks since the February 2022 invasion. Witkoff said they seek a peace agreement that delivers lasting security.
Disputed territory and security demands
The Kremlin rejects a ceasefire and demands Kyiv surrender parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that Russian forces have not captured. I find the Russian demand for territory in these strategically important eastern regions a significant hurdle to the talks. Ukraine wants a ceasefire along the current front line. The strategically important regions in eastern Ukraine remain central to the negotiations. On Oct. 25, Zelensky said restrictions on his army and Ukraine’s neutrality are not up for discussion. He also stated that "our security guarantees are our guarantees, and they cannot be dictated by the Russian side." These demands follow the October meetings in Oslo and St. Petersburg. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed uncertainty about whether a negotiated peace deal between Ukraine and Russia is possible during the G20 foreign ministers meeting held on Oct. 31. Rubio told reporters, "I don’t know if negotiated peace is achievable in Ukraine; that’s what we’re trying to find out." He added, "I don’t think anyone here is claiming that we’re on the verge of a negotiated settlement."
