Bayraktar signals price concerns
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told journalists on Nov. 5 that "Russia is extremely expensive." He stated that the reason Turkey buys less gas from Russia and more from the U.S. is price rather than politics. I find his claim that the shift is not political to be a direct attempt to signal to Moscow that Ankara will seek better deals, though I cannot verify the specific price Ankara pays for Russian gas. Isaac Levi, an energy policy analyst with the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told the Kyiv Independent that this could be a bargaining message to Moscow to offer a better price or lose more market share. Turkey may score points with Washington by purchasing American liquefied natural gas, while its insistence that it still needs Russian gas keeps the door open to both. Turkey follows a path similar to India and China, which both used the war to demand that Moscow sell energy at a discount.
Turkey dependence on Russia remains high
The IEA report shows Turkey maintains a deep dependence on Russian energy sources. Natural gas accounted for over 25% of the total energy supply in 2024, and much of this came from Russia. I see the growing oil reliance as a significant vulnerability since Russian oil accounted for more than 50% of Turkish imports in 2024, compared to less than one-sixth in 2021.
| Energy Source | Turkish Reliance Fact |
|---|---|
| Natural Gas (2024) | Over 25% of total supply |
| Russian Oil (2024) | Over 50% of imports |
| Coal (since 2022) | Largest supplier |
| Imported Energy (2022) | 11% of Turkish GDP |
Russia has been the largest coal supplier to Turkey since 2022. Ankara and Moscow also collaborate on the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Rosatom will operate for a service life of 60 to 80 years. Turkey maintains its position as a mediator between Moscow and the West, even as Ukraine targets Russian energy export infrastructure with drone attacks on a near-daily basis. Turkey faces a shifting market because EU rules will completely ban imports of both pipeline gas and LNG in 2027. The loss of its biggest LNG customer will put pressure on Russia to offer deeper discounts to attract buyers like Turkey, according to Isaac Levi.
