Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refuses to rule out calling snap elections to secure a two-thirds majority for constitutional changes. The ruling Civil Contract party holds 64 seats following the June 2026 parliamentary elections. To trigger a referendum to amend the constitution, the government needs 70 seats. Azerbaijan insists that Armenia amend its constitution before the two countries sign a peace treaty. This demand targets a clause in the 1995 constitution regarding the Declaration of Independence and the reunification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The agenda for a new constitution was first announced in February 2020, and Pashinyan reaffirmed the need for it in August 2026, noting that the voters had supported the agenda by electing the Civil Contract party.
| Parliamentary Party | Seat Count |
|---|---|
| Civil Contract | 64 |
| Strong Armenia Alliance | 29 |
| Armenia Alliance | 12 |
Negotiations and political maneuvering
Pashinyan previously linked the constitutional requirement to the peace process, comparing the issue to a "red cloth" that triggers a bull. He explained in January 2024 that with a red cloth the government gets a negative guarantee, while the other cloth provides a chance, but no guarantee. On October 29, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told parliament the ruling party would resign if they fail to secure the necessary votes. He urged the opposition to support the referendum to allow for a peace agreement. Anna Grigoryan, an MP for the opposition, called the proposed document "Aliyev’s Constitution."
Narek Sukiasyan, a political scientist, argues the dilemma was imposed by Azerbaijan and creates an impasse that is difficult to overcome. He says the chances of a referendum passing are not high. He also believes the demand for change could be seen as a step toward humiliating the population. Sukiasyan suggests the ruling party might use a "Real Armenia" ideology to redefine statecraft around the 29,743 square kilometres of internationally recognized sovereign territory. This strategy aims to address concerns raised after a diplomatic tour organized by Azerbaijan for Armenian cultural heritage sites in Karabakh. Pashinyan also suggested a peace agreement with Azerbaijan could be signed as early as 2027 or 2028, following concerns from Azerbaijani MP Gaya Mammadov that Armenia is attempting to delay fulfilling its obligations. Pashinyan added that if negotiations fail, the government will find other ways to pressure the opposition, stating they will make an offer that the opposition cannot refuse. The government promised to publish the new constitution text by the end of the year, though Sukiasyan suggests the text might not be ready.
Electoral realities and opposition status
The government faces several obstacles if it pursues a snap election. To trigger a referendum, the party needs 70 votes in parliament, but Civil Contract holds only 64. The party must also secure "yes" votes from 25% of all registered voters for a referendum to pass. Average turnout in the last three parliamentary elections was 52%. New legislation recently removed 70,000 people from the voter registry because they did not live in Armenia during the past year. Because the pool of registered voters decreased, the party could potentially win a larger share of the vote. Civil Contract saw its support fall from 70% in 2018 to 54% in 2021 and then to 50% in 2026. The Armenian election code ensures that no party can receive a constitutional majority unless they receive over two-thirds of the votes. The opposition remains weakened as its leaders face criminal proceedings. Samvel Karapetyan is under house arrest, Gagik Tsarukyan is in detention, and Robert Kocharyan’s pre-trial detention was extended by two months.
