Europe needs a single voice
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sent a formal letter to European Council President Antonio Costa on Nov. 5. She argues that Europe must appoint a dedicated envoy for Ukraine peace talks to avoid "condemning Europe to irrelevance." Meloni points to a messy schedule of competing diplomatic efforts that she claims makes Europe appear "utterly lacking in credibility in handling one of the most complicated dossiers our nations are facing." These meetings include an Oct. 10 discussion in Miami, an Oct. 20 meeting in Oslo, and an Oct. 27 call involving Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store with Russian President Vladimir Putin. I see Meloni’s push as the only way to prevent Europe from appearing to be in disarray. Representatives from the U.S., Ukraine, NATO, and several European countries met in Brussels on Nov. 4 to discuss ending the war before the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. Meloni wants Costa to raise this proposal at the Nov. 13 informal meeting of EU heads of state in Dublin. She also expects the European Council to formalize a decision by December to allow for discussions with non-EU countries, such as the United Kingdom and Norway.
US election results and the pressure on Trump
The Democratic sweep of the US Congress on Nov. 3 alters the math for the upcoming trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. Democrats hold at least 54 Senate seats and won at least 228 House seats, with NBC News projecting a final 258-177 split. I find the 13-point Democratic margin in the House popular vote a significant blow to Trump’s ability to dictate foreign policy without Congressional interference. Vice-President JD Vance posted on X on Nov. 4, "The reason we lost is the war." Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie plans to force an impeachment vote against Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in the week of November 9. Massie has drafted eight articles, including alleged breaches of the War Powers Resolution, and he puts the chance of passage at better than 50%. I consider the Republican plan to impeach Hegseth a direct consequence of the Democratic victory. On Nov. 2, US regular gasoline averaged $4.153, an increase of $1.134 from the previous year, while diesel reached $6.292, up $2.539. These economic pressures likely influenced the vote, as 88% of election-night voters told CNN the cost of living was a crucial or major factor. The war in Iran also scored highly, with 74% of voters labeling it a crucial or major issue.
The Abu Dhabi summit and Moscow’s demands
Moscow will seek to use the Nov. 10-11 Abu Dhabi talks to push for further sanctions relief. A person close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg that Moscow wants to argue that business interests can precede peace. This complicates Meloni’s goal of a unified European mandate, especially as the US presence in Abu Dhabi becomes more uncertain following the midterm rout. While Trump promises to work with Democrats, his ability to force a deal on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remains questionable. The $2.1bn Patriot sale, intended to ease the interceptor shortage in Kyiv, may not deliver until 2030. I find that the instability in US domestic policy makes Meloni’s plea for a single EU voice much more urgent. The upcoming meetings in Abu Dhabi will test whether Meloni’s call for a unified European voice can actually hold weight when the US delegation includes envoys like Witkoff and Kushner. I expect the lack of a unified EU envoy to remain a glaring weakness if Europe cannot coordinate its stance before the trilateral talks conclude.
