Economic projections move downward
The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNP) lowered economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to -0.4% and 1.7% in the projection used to prepare the latest budget revision. For 2027, the commission cut its growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.7%. The 2026 forecast marks a significant change from the 1% growth projected in December 2025 and the 0.1% interim forecast published in May 2026, as the new figure shows a contraction of -0.4%. Higher inflation, partly prompted by the Middle East War, pushed the GDP deflator forecast from 6.1% to 8.5%. Consequently, the nominal GDP forecast for 2026 increased to RON2,086bn from the RON2,045bn projected in December 2025. The CNP also revised the assumed average exchange rate from RON5.11 to RON5.22 per euro, which keeps the forecast for GDP in euros at around €400bn. These revisions indicate a much weaker economic trajectory than the commission previously anticipated.
Consumption and sector shifts
Investment momentum is fading, so consumption will drive growth. Gross fixed capital formation is expected to expand by just 0.8% in 2027, a sharp drop from the 8.2% expansion projected for 2026 and the 1.9% growth projected in December 2025. This compares to the 4% investment growth originally projected for 2026. Overall consumption will contract by 1.2% in 2026 before increasing by 1.7% in 2027. The CNP projects that private consumption will grow by 1.9% next year, which it expects will be helped by 0.6% employment growth despite real wage growth of just 0.4%. On the production side, industry and services will contract by 3.4% and 1.9% in 2026, representing a disappointing performance for the industrial sector. These declines are expected to be partly offset by growth of 10.1% in construction and 5.1% in agriculture. For 2027, the outlook for industrial output improves to 0.9% as the recovery becomes more balanced across sectors.
| Indicator | 2026 Projection | 2027 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP % | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| Industry | -3.4% | 0.9% |
| Agriculture | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Construction | 10.1% | 1.0% |
| Services | -1.9% | 2.0% |
| Total Consumption | -1.2% | 1.7% |
The 2026 production outlook shows that industry and services will contract, but the 2027 outlook points to a more balanced recovery as industrial output is projected to increase by 0.9%. This improvement follows the heavy contraction expected in the current year.
