Russia resumes grain shipping permits through Kerch Strait

Sea of Azov shipping resumes

Russia restarted granting permits for all vessels carrying grain seeking to leave the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. Bloomberg reports that at least one ship had already passed through the Kerch Strait toward the Black Sea by October 29. This resumption clearly addresses the logistics crisis following a halt of more than three months that began after a Ukrainian drone campaign hit over 100 Russian vessels in the Azov sea during the summer. After Ukrainian drones struck 218 Russian shadow fleet vessels by August 8, including 134 in the Sea of Azov and 84 in the Black Sea, Russia temporarily halted all grain shipping through the Don-Azov Channel on July 10. The campaign, "Operation Molochka," targeted Russia’s shadow fleet to tighten the noose around the occupied Crimea peninsula. The Sea of Azov stretches from Russian-occupied Mariupol to occupied Crimea and provides a vital waterway for military logistics and exports of oil, grain, and steel.

Sanctions and infrastructure pressure

The resumption of grain shipping follows pressure on Russian export infrastructure. Krasnodar Krai, Russia’s largest agricultural region, declared a state of emergency in September because exporters could not move grain. Ukrainian strikes also reached Russia’s main Black Sea export terminals. All three grain terminals at Novorossiysk, the leading Black Sea wheat export port for Russia, suspended operations throughout the summer. Exporters shifted much of their grain to Baltic ports instead, according to Reuters. Lithuania’s Prime Minister Mindauga Sinkevicius called for the EU to impose sanctions on Russian grain and ban transit on October 8. The Baltic prime ministers sent a joint letter on October 9. The Unmanned Systems Forces reported that Ukrainian drones struck dozens of Russian shadow fleet vessels in the Black and Azov seas throughout July. These vessels, which supported Russia’s military logistics, carried cargo and serviced port infrastructure. The Ukrainian military campaign resulted in over 100 Russian vessels being hit in the Azov sea during the summer, which negatively impacted Russia’s economy and contributed to an increase in global grain prices.