Black Sea security talks
Zelensky’s visit to Istanbul on Oct 31 provides the most direct path to discussing Black Sea security. President Volodymyr Zelensky travels to Istanbul for a working trip at the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The leaders plan to discuss the security situation in the Black Sea and other developments related to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. Earlier in October, Erdogan called Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the worsening security situation in the Black Sea after Russian drones struck several merchant vessels. Zelensky confirmed that "important negotiations" will take place in Turkey. On his Telegram channel, Zelensky stated, "We are also working to ensure that all available diplomatic opportunities are pursued." He expects that in November, his side will move forward with formats that have been under discussion for a long time. Kyiv has previously proposed a partial ceasefire with Russia that would see both parties suspend attacks against ships and ports on the Black Sea. Turkey maintains a delicate balancing act as a peacebroker, supporting Kyiv’s defense efforts while maintaining an economic partnership with Moscow. The Turkish government helped establish the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative for safe maritime exports of grain and fertilizer from Ukraine and hosted three rounds of peace talks between representatives of Ukraine and Russia in 2025.
Friction with Azerbaijan
Turkish diplomacy faces clear friction with Azerbaijan over religious dress and foreign policy. In September, Azerbaijani authorities adopted restrictions to limit the use of the hijab and other forms of religious dress in schools. By October, videos showed students and teachers in headscarves being refused entry to their schools, which led to protests across Azerbaijan. Turkish President Erdogan criticized the bans on headscarves in schools by "certain countries" during a September United Nations General Assembly speech. Oktay Saral, a senior advisor to Erdogan, posted on X that blocking the right to education of students wearing headscarves in Azerbaijan is unacceptable. Fatih Erbakan, the head of the New Welfare Party, released a video addressed to the Azerbaijani president titled "Dear Mr. Aliyev; I must regrettably state that WHAT YOU ARE DOING, ARMENIA IS NOT DOING!" Azerbaijan responded by accusing certain Turkish media outlets and social media platforms of disseminating untrue and defamatory information. On Oct 20, Azerbaijani authorities issued arrest warrants for seven Turkish citizens, including five journalists, who they accused of inciting religious hatred. These journalists also face accusations of calling for the violent overthrow of the government.
During a protest against the hijab ban, Turkish scholar Ahmet Kerim Artuk said that the Aliyev regime cannot be a brother because of its secular authoritarianism and collaboration with Zionist oppressors. Social media attacks have also intensified, including a post from a sizable Azerbaijani account that showed a personified Azerbaijan performing an exorcism over Turkey to remove Arab and Middle Eastern culture. The news that Israeli President Isaac Herzog used Turkish airspace and an Azerbaijani jet to reach Baku led to condemnation from Turkish opposition figures and added fuel to the fire about Baku’s ties to Israel. During a conference in Baku, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan left the room while Herzog spoke. I find the political volatility in this relationship quite striking, especially since the dismissal of Oktay Saral on Oct 25 followed an Oct 21 phone call between Erdogan and President Ilham Aliyev.
The Ankara-Baku relationship
I judge that the personal closeness of Aliyev and Erdogan is the most reliable stabilizer for the Ankara-Baku relationship. The military alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan remains established by a formalized treaty, and both parties benefit from regular arms shipments. Turkey also relies on Azerbaijani hydrocarbon imports because the country has few domestic energy sources. Although Aliyev described Azerbaijan as a "middle power" in May, the relationship has survived previous periods of turbulence, such as the 2009 dispute over Turkey’s warming ties with Armenia. The current confrontation around the hijab ban shows that Turkey’s open society makes it difficult to stifle domestic dissent. I see the personal connection between the two leaders as the main reason these tensions remain manageable, especially after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war where Turkish troops assisted Baku.
